Intelligence Assessment

I just read the newly declassified NIE. In several particulars it agrees with things I have been saying right along:

a) splintering terrorists is good for us.

We assess that the resulting splinter groups would, at least for a time, pose a less serious threat to US interests than does al-Qaíida.

b) Democratizing the Muslim world is good for us.

If democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years, political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and groups willing to use the political process to achieve their local objectives.

c) We are hurting AQ badly.

United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that al-Qa’ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization.

d) Iraq is just one of many rallying points for terrorists.

Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement:
(1)Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness;
(2) theIraq jihad;
(3) the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and
(4) pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims -- all of which jihadists exploit.